Walks Watch, Pt. 2

The rate of posting on this blog has been slower than usual recently, for obvious reasons, but I think one way to remember Brian is to talk a lot about one of his favorite subjects. So here’s installment number two in the semiregular series about Tiger walk rates.

Through 18 games, the Tigers have coaxed 62 walks, an average of 3.4 per game. That total puts them at No. 16 in MLB, tied with four other teams. They’ve struck out 126 times, a rate of 7 per game. Their K/BB ratio of 2.06/1 is actually pretty good. And I suspect their numbers will improve once they start getting more base hits. Right now, pitchers must know they’ll have it pretty easy facing the Tigers, who have about three guys hitting consistently right now and two hitting for power.

Even with the team-wide BA slump, the plate discipline picture is looking rosier this year than it did in 2006. Last year they drew 430 walks for a shockingly bad rate of 2.65 walks per game, and struck out 1133 times for 6.99 per game. That’s a K/BB ratio of 2.64.

So in the early going, the Tigers have added almost an entire walk per game while holding their strikeout rate steady. There are a lot of things not to like about the offense so far, but selectivity is not one of them.

Walks Watch, Pt. I

If both people who read this blog haven’t noticed, we’re somewhat preoccupied with the Tigers’ need to improve their team plate discipline. With that in mind, let’s introduce a semiregular new feature that will track how the Tigers compare to the rest of the league in drawing walks.

Through six games, Tiger hitters have coaxed 21 free passes, including 9 on April 4 against Toronto, which not coincidentally was their finest offensive performance of the season.

That total places the team 13th in baseball and fifth in the American League. The total is more impressive considering that nine of the 12 offenses that have drawns more walks have played one or two more games than the Tigers.

Of course, this newfound patience isn’t putting more runs on the board — the Tigers have been outscored so far and are hitting a paltry .231/.302/.362. That’s ugly. But the hits will come eventually, and it’s good to see the Tigers working counts and collecting baserunners more efficiently.

Five regular players  — Sean Casey, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Inge, and Gary Sheffield — and reserve Marcus Thames have acceptable walk rates thus far. Curtis Granderson has walked twice in 24 at-bats, but he’s slugging .750, so he’s alright. I assume he’ll take more free passes when he’s not hitting lasers nearly every time up.

The small sample caveat applies here, as it does with every observation made during the first six weeks of the season. But if the Tigers can keep this up, they have the ability to make solid offensive gains this year. The base hits and home runs will happen more frequently if the team continues to show patience   

KC Accidental

Despite their best efforts, the Tigers staggered out of Kansas City with a series win this weekend, a happy result that seemed unthinkable until late Sunday afternoon.

After looking cold and confused Friday and barely ekeing out a victory Saturday, the Tigers were not inspiring much confidence heading into the rubber game. When the pitching was strong, the offense disappeared, and when the bats perked up, the bullpen was nearly blowing the lead. 

Sunday had all the makings of another good-pitch, no-hit affair through eight innings. The Easter afternoon game seemed lost until Pudge Rodriguez smacked a three-run homer in the ninth off David Riske (insert semi-blasphemous “Tigers rise from the dead” joke here).  

So the win-loss column looked good as the Tigers headed to Baltimore, but the story on the field was a blend of good and bad. Bonderman looked strong, save two mistakes to Mark Teahen, with no unintentional walks and eight strikeouts. He also demonstrated some guile and intelligence by escaping a couple tough jams — the kind of situations that in previous years may have ballooned into big innings. Bondo doesn’t have a decision after two starts, but his early season performance is encouraging.

Perhaps more heartening was a relatively trouble-free inning from Fernando Rodney. He was a key player in last year’s bullpen and is arguably more important this year with Jamie Walker in Baltimore. Hopefully his Sunday performance is more indicative of the season to come than were his prior two outings.

The offense was nearly stagnant again, although it’s hard to determine how much Brandon Duckworth had to do with that. The Tigers weren’t and will never be a very disciplined team, but they didn’t seem to swing at too many awful pitches Sunday. Duckworth was not flashy but threw a lot of strikes, and he deserves some credit for that.

In all, the series was unimpressive, but the Tigers escaped with a pair of wins. One trait of the 2006 Tigers that had been absent in previous years was the ability to win on the days when the team just doesn’t “have it.” Jim Leyland’s guys showed this quality again on Sunday; let’s hope it’s a recurring theme. 

Jinx

The previous post was late to appear because the computer froze as I wrote it Wednesday night. In the interim, the Tigers proffered an offensive performance so feeble, it pretty much invalidated everything I said there.

Against Jorge de la Rosa, a hard-throwing lefty with a career BB ratio of 6.5/9 innings, the Tigers were foolishly aggressive, swinging early in counts and making feeble contact most of the night. Even Gary Sheffield, the team’s most discriminating hitter, was weirdly impatient.

Yes, the temperature was near-arctic, and sure, the Tigers’ at-bats were probably very uncomfortable last night. The Tigers are a division contender, but they are not so clearly better than the rest of the division that they can afford to throw away games played in inclement conditions — especially since there may be another month of this weather in store in Detroit.

As I write this, the Tigers are stepping in against Gil Meche, an eminently beatable pitcher who nonetheless can dominate teams who don’t make him work. Let’s hope for better results this afternoon.

If Patience Started A Band, I’d Be Her Biggest Fan

Despite the dogged efforts of Jason Grilli, the Tigers managed to eke out a win in game two of the young season, thanks to an offensive explosion that included a grand slam from Curtis Granderson and two hits from Carlos Guillen. But one again, the offensive highlight was not a long hit but a slow walk — nine slow walks to first base by unusually discriminating Tiger hitters.

Five of those nine free passes came around to score, and the Tigers’ patience no doubt allowed them to get better pitches to hit when they weren’t jogging to first. My analytical side keeps reminding my home side that it’s only been two games, it’s not a trend, but I can’t but be encouraged by the team’s approach at the plate thus far.

I had been frightened by the organizational maxim issued this winter that called for players throughout the system to strike out less. While it’s true several Tigers could benefit from making more contact, players who are trained to focus on not striking out often sacrifice walks and solid contact in an attempt to simply “put it in play.”

That may still be a concern, but at least in the opening series, the Tigers were able to balance patience and power and were rewarded for it. Granderson, a favorite whipping boy of the anti-K crowd, sizzled a line drive out to right-center for the game-changing grand slam, and he later a drive into the right-field corner for a triple. Add those ropes to several solid ABs on Monday, and it seems Granderson may just be able to make more contact without foregoing his considerable sock. Striking the combination there would instantly make him one of the best young centerfielders in the league.

Tigers re-sign Casey

The following post by Brian Bluhm first appeared Nov. 16 at tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com.

 I am not sure on the terms at this point. This was far from the ideal solution to the 1B situation but I knew there would be problems going into this offseason with no real options available in the free agent market.

The Tigers will just have to run him out there next season and hope beyond hope that his decline goes on a holding pattern for a season and he is able to stay healthy.

This isn’t a move that keeps the Tigers out of the playoffs but it is a move that puts more pressure on Magglio, Carlos and Gary to stay healthy.

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?

Gary Sheffield: What Does He Mean For the Lineup?

The following essay, written by Brian Bluhm, was originally posted at tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com on Nov. 13.

 Gary Sheffield to the Tigers: What does it mean for the lineup?

Before starting into impact of Gary Sheffield on the Detroit Tigers current lineup I thought I would analyze the trade as a whole. First of all Sheff is often quoted as having a really bad attitude, and it showed up when he made his exit from New York. Just like almost every other location Gary whined his way right on the way out. Including throwing former Bobby Abreu under the bus by calling himself a superior player. Whether he is a better hitter is up for debate, but what isn’t up for debate is the fact that Sheffield is an amazing hitter. The other question is whether Sheffield is fully recovered from his wrist injury and will be back to his powerful line drive ways. I trust that management has looked into that situation enough to know whether Sheffield will be able to get back to his .290/.370/.500 ways.

As for what the Tigers gave up. Typically you are not going to get something as good as Sheffield even at the age of 38 without giving something up and I think that the trade market for Sheffield was likely to start heating up soon.

Humberto Sanchez – I wrote about him on this blog before. I really feel that he found his stride this year while on the mound but the question has once again moved to can he stay on the mound? He has never made it through a full season healthy. You look at his past and he has a ton of talent with a lot of question marks. The Tigers likely saw him as a future reliever with the young starters they have and the young ones that they had on the way. Personally I had him rated as the 3rd best pitcher in the system behind LHP Andrew Miller and RHP Jair Jurrjens.

Kevin Whelan – He was as good as a single A relief prospect can be, but still that is a single A relief prospect. Relatively new to pitching he has a 92-94 MPH fastball with okay life and a very good splitter. He had some issues with control this season and I had him as the 9th best prospect in the system.

Anthony Claggett – Another single A reliever. Very good stuff but still a risk.

Basically what I see from this package is quality but risky quality. The Tigers gave up quite a bit but at the same time if they were going to trade some of their top prospects these were the ones that I would deal.

On to the main part of this column; what will be the effect of Sheffield on this lineup? I have him penciled in as the Tigers cleanup hitter with Magglio moving to 5. I really think that a 3-4-5 of Guillen-Sheffield-Ordonez is the way to go. Its not White Sox quality but it is way up there and is a huge improvement over the Casey-Ordonez-Guillen that the Tigers ended the season with.

So using the lineup analysis from www.baseballmusings.com we can see what the theoretical run total for the Tigers will be next season.

A couple of assumptions to make this study more about what sort of impact a bat like Sheffield has on a lineup. First I will use the Tigers stat lines from last season. Second I will put Sheffield at a line of .290/.370/.500. (I will use Casey for this study even though I want him out of there and I will use his full season stats)

The following lineup and stat line (obp/slg) was used:

1. Granderson CF (0.335/0.438)
2. Polanco 2B (0.329/0.364)
3. Guillen SS (0.400/0.519)
4. Sheffield DH (0.370/0.500)
5. Ordonez RF (0.350/0.477)
6. Rodriguez C (0.332/0.437)
7. Monroe LF (0.310/0.482)
8. Casey/Shelton 1B (0.322/0.432)
9. Inge 3B (0.313/0.463)

Its going to be interesting to see if the Tigers upgrade from Casey at 1B.

If we assume that those were the production levels for each of the positions (I think 1B might have been a tad bit higher). That is the lineup that minus Sheffield produced 822 runs last season with a runs per game of 5.074. With Sheffield in the lineup you get a production of 843.5 runs and a runs per game of 5.207.

The ultimate lineup (according to the site used) for these stats lines is as follows:

Guillen
Sheffield
Granderson
Monroe
Ordonez
Inge
Rodriguez
First Base
Polanco

So adding Sheffield to the lineup from last season is a gain of around 21 runs. IF the pitching stayed steady (675 runs allowed) you can use the Pythagrean Theorem to estimate a record of 97-65.

Beyond the pure numbers I think that this is a good move to take pressure off of Magglio Ordonez who seems to enjoy flying under the radar. All in all its a good fit for a team that needed an upgrade offensively.

Now they just need to find one more batter with a decent obp and hope that some of the batters improve on last season.